FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 11 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.7Sleeper 29.2FantasyPros 22.925.5Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.9Sleeper 23.6FantasyPros 22.524.5Expected FP - 3
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.4Sleeper 19.6FantasyPros 19.622.4Expected FP - 4
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 21.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.5Sleeper 23.1FantasyPros 20.021.9Expected FP - 5
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.3Sleeper 19.9FantasyPros 19.920.9Expected FP - 6
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.2Sleeper 18.2FantasyPros 18.420.8Expected FP - 7
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs CINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.3Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 19.520.5Expected FP - 8
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 18.3FantasyPros 21.420.4Expected FP - 9
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 21.5FantasyPros 17.819.6Expected FP - 10
Bo NixQB · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.2Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 18.419.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
