FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
K · Week 11 · Standard
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
K. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.
- 1
Ka'imi FairbairnK · HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.9Sleeper 8.7FantasyPros 10.211.1Expected FP - 2
Brandon AubreyK · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.3Sleeper 8.7FantasyPros 10.510.2Expected FP - 3
Tyler BassK · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.2Sleeper 7.9FantasyPros 7.79.9Expected FP - 4
Will ReichardK · MIN vs SFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.4Sleeper 9.1FantasyPros 8.69.6Expected FP - 5
Cairo SantosK · CHI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.7Sleeper 7.8FantasyPros 9.79.2Expected FP - 6
Chris BoswellK · PIT vs PHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.7Sleeper 8.0FantasyPros 7.99.2Expected FP - 7
Jake BatesK · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.7Sleeper 8.2FantasyPros 8.89.1Expected FP - 8
Spencer ShraderK · IND vs HOUThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.9Sleeper 9.6FantasyPros 7.98.9Expected FP - 9
Cameron DickerK · LAC vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.1Sleeper 7.4FantasyPros 8.38.7Expected FP - 10
Jason SandersK · NYJ vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.8Sleeper 7.2FantasyPros 7.68.6Expected FP - 11
Drew StevensK · WAS vs CINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.1Sleeper 8.0FantasyPros 6.68.5Expected FP - 12
Wil LutzK · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.7Sleeper 7.4FantasyPros 7.78.5Expected FP - 13
Evan McPhersonK · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.0Sleeper 8.4FantasyPros 8.18.2Expected FP - 14
Cam LittleK · JAC vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.2Sleeper 8.3FantasyPros 8.18.2Expected FP - 15
Chad RylandK · ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.5Sleeper 7.2FantasyPros 7.98.0Expected FP - 16
Matt GayK · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.2Sleeper 8.5FantasyPros 7.47.8Expected FP - 17
Chase McLaughlinK · TB vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.5Sleeper 8.0FantasyPros 7.87.8Expected FP - 18
Harrison ButkerK · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.7Sleeper 7.5FantasyPros 8.47.8Expected FP - 19
Dominic ZvadaK · NYG vs JACSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.2Sleeper 7.9FantasyPros 6.37.7Expected FP - 20
Joey SlyeK · TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.1Sleeper 7.3FantasyPros 7.57.3Expected FP - 21
Eddy PineiroK · SF vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.3Sleeper 8.0FantasyPros 8.37.2Expected FP - 22
Ryan FitzgeraldK · CAR vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.0Sleeper 7.6FantasyPros 7.77.0Expected FP - 23
Jake ElliottK · PHI vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.9Sleeper 7.3FantasyPros 7.36.7Expected FP - 24
Charlie SmythK · NO vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.7Sleeper 6.1FantasyPros 2.05.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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