FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
QB · Week 11 · Standard
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
QB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.7Sleeper 29.2FantasyPros 22.925.5Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.9Sleeper 23.6FantasyPros 22.524.5Expected FP - 3
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.4Sleeper 19.6FantasyPros 19.522.3Expected FP - 4
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 21.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.5Sleeper 23.1FantasyPros 20.121.9Expected FP - 5
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.3Sleeper 19.9FantasyPros 19.320.6Expected FP - 6
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs CINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.3Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 19.520.5Expected FP - 7
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.5Sleeper 18.3FantasyPros 21.420.4Expected FP - 8
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 21.5FantasyPros 18.419.8Expected FP - 9
Bo NixQB · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.2Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 18.419.5Expected FP - 10
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.1Sleeper 19.3FantasyPros 19.318.7Expected FP - 11
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.3Sleeper 18.1FantasyPros 18.918.6Expected FP - 12
Jared GoffQB · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.9Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 19.516.7Expected FP - 13
Cam WardQB · TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.4Sleeper 14.7FantasyPros 17.116.6Expected FP - 14
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs SFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.7Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 17.515.8Expected FP - 15
Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.7Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 18.615.7Expected FP - 16
Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.0Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 16.115.4Expected FP - 17
Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs PHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.4Sleeper 14.7FantasyPros 16.414.8Expected FP - 18
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.0Sleeper 18.3FantasyPros 13.214.6Expected FP - 19
Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 13.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.6Sleeper 14.4FantasyPros 14.813.9Expected FP - 20
Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.1Sleeper 11.9FantasyPros 15.913.8Expected FP - 21
J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs JACSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 12.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 12.2FantasyPros 15.112.6Expected FP - 22
Daniel JonesQB · IND vs HOUThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.6Sleeper 11.6FantasyPros 11.310.8Expected FP - 23
Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.6Sleeper 11.6FantasyPros 8.29.7Expected FP - 24
Carson BeckQB · ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.0Sleeper 1.9FantasyPros 5.85.1Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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