FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
QB · Week 11 · Standard
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
QB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.
- 1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.9Sleeper 23.0FantasyPros 22.524.4Expected FP - 2
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.7Sleeper 24.2FantasyPros 22.924.3Expected FP - 3
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.4Sleeper 19.5FantasyPros 19.622.3Expected FP - 4
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.5Sleeper 21.3FantasyPros 20.321.6Expected FP - 5
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.3Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 19.820.9Expected FP - 6
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs CINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.3Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 19.220.7Expected FP - 7
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.5Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 21.420.5Expected FP - 8
Bo NixQB · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.2Sleeper 17.3FantasyPros 18.419.2Expected FP - 9
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 19.1FantasyPros 17.819.0Expected FP - 10
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.1Sleeper 18.0FantasyPros 19.618.5Expected FP - 11
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.3Sleeper 16.5FantasyPros 18.918.2Expected FP - 12
Cam WardQB · TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.4Sleeper 15.6FantasyPros 16.916.7Expected FP - 13
Jared GoffQB · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.9Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 19.516.5Expected FP - 14
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs SFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.7Sleeper 15.8FantasyPros 17.415.7Expected FP - 15
Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.0Sleeper 16.0FantasyPros 16.715.6Expected FP - 16
Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.7Sleeper 16.5FantasyPros 18.215.5Expected FP - 17
Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs PHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.4Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 16.415.2Expected FP - 18
Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.6Sleeper 15.4FantasyPros 15.414.2Expected FP - 19
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.0Sleeper 16.4FantasyPros 13.214.2Expected FP - 20
Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.5Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 14.414.0Expected FP - 21
Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.1Sleeper 11.3FantasyPros 16.513.9Expected FP - 22
J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs JACSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 13.2FantasyPros 15.212.9Expected FP - 23
Daniel JonesQB · IND vs HOUThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.6Sleeper 10.6FantasyPros 11.310.6Expected FP - 24
Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.6Sleeper 11.2FantasyPros 8.29.6Expected FP - 25
Carson BeckQB · ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.0Sleeper 9.8FantasyPros 7.87.9Expected FP - 26
Kyle McCordQB · MIA vs BUFSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 5.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.4Sleeper 9.7FantasyPros 0.05.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
Make your comparison
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