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Week 142026 · Half-PPR

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Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 14 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
28 shown · common FP scale
0.025.1
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs GBSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.0Expected FP
  2. 2
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.5Expected FP
  3. 3
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.4Expected FP
  4. 4
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.3Expected FP
  5. 5
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.0Expected FP
  6. 6
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs BUFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.7Expected FP
  7. 7
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.7Expected FP
  8. 8
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.7Expected FP
  9. 9
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs CINSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    18.9Expected FP
  10. 10
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.6Expected FP
  11. 11
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.7Expected FP
  12. 12
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs PITMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.3Expected FP
  13. 13
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs NEThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.9Expected FP
  14. 14
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.9Expected FP
  15. 15
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.3Expected FP
  16. 16
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs MINThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.8Expected FP
  17. 17
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.6Expected FP
  18. 18
    Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs DENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.4Expected FP
  19. 19
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    15.1Expected FP
  20. 20
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.3Expected FP
  21. 21
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.3Expected FP
  22. 22
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.3Expected FP
  23. 23
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs JACMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    12.9Expected FP
  24. 24
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    11.6Expected FP
  25. 25
    Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    10.6Expected FP
  26. 26
    Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    10.3Expected FP
  27. 27
    Daniel JonesQB · IND vs PHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.7Expected FP
  28. 28
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    5.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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