FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 18 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NYJSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 25.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.2Sleeper 27.6FantasyPros 23.625.5Expected FP - 2
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 24.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 24.8FantasyPros 22.624.4Expected FP - 3
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs DALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.9Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 22.323.6Expected FP - 4
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs DETSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.5Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.023.3Expected FP - 5
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 26.4Sleeper 19.7FantasyPros 19.023.1Expected FP - 6
Drake MayeQB · NE vs MIASun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.5Sleeper 23.3FantasyPros 21.323.0Expected FP - 7
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 22.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 23.2FantasyPros 18.922.5Expected FP - 8
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 22.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.5Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.722.2Expected FP - 9
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 21.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.7Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 20.121.5Expected FP - 10
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 21.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.3Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 19.221.3Expected FP - 11
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs TENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 20.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 17.7FantasyPros 20.820.8Expected FP - 12
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 20.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.1Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 21.220.1Expected FP - 13
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 19.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 16.819.8Expected FP - 14
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 19.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.1Sleeper 18.6FantasyPros 20.019.0Expected FP - 15
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs NYJSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.9Sleeper 14.1FantasyPros 18.018.6Expected FP - 16
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs NOSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 18.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.9FantasyPros 13.318.1Expected FP - 17
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs CHISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 17.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.4Sleeper 16.0FantasyPros 18.417.5Expected FP - 18
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 17.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.3Sleeper 18.3FantasyPros 15.317.2Expected FP - 19
Jared GoffQB · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 16.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.9Sleeper 17.3FantasyPros 18.416.8Expected FP - 20
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.5Sleeper 14.2FantasyPros 18.416.1Expected FP - 21
Bo NixQB · DEN vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.3Sleeper 17.1FantasyPros 15.616.1Expected FP - 22
Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs BUFSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.9Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 17.416.0Expected FP - 23
Chuba HubbardRB · CAR vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 15.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.0Sleeper 14.5FantasyPros 15.215.9Expected FP - 24
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 15.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.3Sleeper 14.2FantasyPros 17.215.4Expected FP - 25
Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs BALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 15.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.1Sleeper 15.4FantasyPros 18.015.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
