FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 18 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
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Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NYJSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 25.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.2Sleeper 27.6FantasyPros 23.625.5Expected FP - 2
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 24.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 24.8FantasyPros 22.624.4Expected FP - 3
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs DALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.9Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 22.323.6Expected FP - 4
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs DETSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.5Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.023.3Expected FP - 5
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 26.4Sleeper 19.7FantasyPros 19.023.1Expected FP - 6
Drake MayeQB · NE vs MIASun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.5Sleeper 23.3FantasyPros 21.323.0Expected FP - 7
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 22.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 23.2FantasyPros 18.922.5Expected FP - 8
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 22.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.5Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.722.2Expected FP - 9
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 21.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.7Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 20.121.5Expected FP - 10
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 21.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.3Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 19.221.3Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
