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Week 182026 · PPR

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D/ST · Week 18 · PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · All rankable defenses

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
32 shown · common FP scale
1.011.2
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    9.0Expected FP
  2. 2
    Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    8.5Expected FP
  3. 3
    Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    7.6Expected FP
  4. 4
    New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs PHISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    7.5Expected FP
  5. 5
    New England PatriotsD/ST · NE vs MIASun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    7.0Expected FP
  6. 6
    Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs CLESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    7.0Expected FP
  7. 7
    Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs BALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.6Expected FP
  8. 8
    Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs NOSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.5Expected FP
  9. 9
    Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs MINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.4Expected FP
  10. 10
    Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs NYJSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  11. 11
    Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs TENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.2Expected FP
  12. 12
    Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs NYGSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.2Expected FP
  13. 13
    Los Angeles RamsD/ST · LAR vs SEASun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.2Expected FP
  14. 14
    Baltimore RavensD/ST · BAL vs PITSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  15. 15
    San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  16. 16
    Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs CHISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.5Expected FP
  17. 17
    Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs LARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.4Expected FP
  18. 18
    New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.1Expected FP
  19. 19
    Atlanta FalconsD/ST · ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.1Expected FP
  20. 20
    Cleveland BrownsD/ST · CLE vs CINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.0Expected FP
  21. 21
    Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.9Expected FP
  22. 22
    Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.8Expected FP
  23. 23
    Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs DENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.7Expected FP
  24. 24
    Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.5Expected FP
  25. 25
    Green Bay PackersD/ST · GB vs DETSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.5Expected FP
  26. 26
    Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs DALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.4Expected FP
  27. 27
    Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs HOUSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    3.5Expected FP
  28. 28
    Indianapolis ColtsD/ST · IND vs JACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    3.1Expected FP
  29. 29
    Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs NESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    3.1Expected FP
  30. 30
    Las Vegas RaidersD/ST · LV vs KCSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    2.8Expected FP
  31. 31
    Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs SFSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    2.6Expected FP
  32. 32
    New York JetsD/ST · NYJ vs BUFSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    2.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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