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Week 182026 · Half-PPR

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Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 18 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
30 shown · common FP scale
0.027.6
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NYJSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    25.6Expected FP
  2. 2
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    24.5Expected FP
  3. 3
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs DETSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    23.4Expected FP
  4. 4
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs DALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    23.4Expected FP
  5. 5
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs MIASun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    22.9Expected FP
  6. 6
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    22.5Expected FP
  7. 7
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    22.4Expected FP
  8. 8
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    21.4Expected FP
  9. 9
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs TENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    21.0Expected FP
  10. 10
    Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    20.5Expected FP
  11. 11
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    18.7Expected FP
  12. 12
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs CHISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    17.5Expected FP
  13. 13
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    16.6Expected FP
  14. 14
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    16.1Expected FP
  15. 15
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    16.1Expected FP
  16. 16
    Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs BUFSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    15.9Expected FP
  17. 17
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs BALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    15.4Expected FP
  18. 18
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    15.3Expected FP
  19. 19
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs PHISun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    14.2Expected FP
  20. 20
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs NOSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    13.7Expected FP
  21. 21
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs HOUSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    13.1Expected FP
  22. 22
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs SEASun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    13.0Expected FP
  23. 23
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs MINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    12.8Expected FP
  24. 24
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs DENSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    12.1Expected FP
  25. 25
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs NYGSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    10.8Expected FP
  26. 26
    Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs PITSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    9.3Expected FP
  27. 27
    Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs KCSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    8.9Expected FP
  28. 28
    Daniel JonesQB · IND vs JACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    8.1Expected FP
  29. 29
    Carson BeckQB · ARI vs SFSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  30. 30
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs CINSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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