FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 17 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.8Sleeper 29.1FantasyPros 22.925.2Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.4Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 20.524.0Expected FP - 3
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.9Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.623.4Expected FP - 4
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 23.5FantasyPros 19.921.1Expected FP - 5
Drake MayeQB · NE vs DENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.3Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 20.020.6Expected FP - 6
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.1Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 18.320.4Expected FP - 7
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs PHISun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.0Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.220.4Expected FP - 8
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.2Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 15.319.6Expected FP - 9
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs HOUMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 18.319.4Expected FP - 10
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.3Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 16.219.4Expected FP - 11
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.7Sleeper 21.6FantasyPros 18.619.1Expected FP - 12
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs GBMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.7Sleeper 15.9FantasyPros 18.019.1Expected FP - 13
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 19.019.0Expected FP - 14
Jared GoffQB · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.5Sleeper 20.8FantasyPros 19.918.6Expected FP - 15
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.1Sleeper 15.5FantasyPros 18.817.8Expected FP - 16
J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 17.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.7Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 20.717.6Expected FP - 17
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 17.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.9Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 16.417.5Expected FP - 18
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.0Sleeper 14.8FantasyPros 16.617.2Expected FP - 19
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.8Sleeper 15.9FantasyPros 17.816.8Expected FP - 20
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs JACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.1Sleeper 18.1FantasyPros 16.416.3Expected FP - 21
Bo NixQB · DEN vs NESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 16.5FantasyPros 16.316.2Expected FP - 22
Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 15.0FantasyPros 20.116.2Expected FP - 23
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs PHISun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 13.816.1Expected FP - 24
Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 15.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.6Sleeper 13.2FantasyPros 19.115.6Expected FP - 25
Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.4Sleeper 16.0FantasyPros 14.415.6Expected FP - 26
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs SEASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.2Sleeper 16.4FantasyPros 15.414.8Expected FP - 27
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 12.7FantasyPros 13.414.6Expected FP - 28
Jonathan TaylorRB · IND vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.3Sleeper 15.1FantasyPros 15.414.2Expected FP - 29
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.7Sleeper 16.7FantasyPros 12.214.2Expected FP - 30
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs LARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 13.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.4Sleeper 12.3FantasyPros 12.613.9Expected FP - 31
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.6Sleeper 11.2FantasyPros 12.113.8Expected FP - 32
Bhayshul TutenRB · JAC vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 13.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 12.5FantasyPros 14.213.7Expected FP - 33
Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.3Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 11.813.4Expected FP - 34
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.5Sleeper 9.4FantasyPros 9.713.2Expected FP - 35
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 11.413.2Expected FP - 36
Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 13.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.3Sleeper 0.0FantasyPros 16.213.1Expected FP - 37
Brock BowersTE · LV vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.1Sleeper 14.2FantasyPros 9.913.0Expected FP - 38
Derrick HenryRB · BAL vs CINThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.9Sleeper 15.5FantasyPros 12.013.0Expected FP - 39
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 12.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.4Sleeper 13.7FantasyPros 12.412.9Expected FP - 40
D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.5Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 11.912.7Expected FP - 41
Chuba HubbardRB · CAR vs SEASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.3Sleeper 12.1FantasyPros 11.912.6Expected FP - 42
Christian WatsonWR · GB vs HOUMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.5Sleeper 13.0FantasyPros 12.112.4Expected FP - 43
Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs LARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 12.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.6Sleeper 12.1FantasyPros 17.012.2Expected FP - 44
Malik NabersWR · NYG vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.9Sleeper 11.5FantasyPros 12.512.2Expected FP - 45
Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA vs BUFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.6Sleeper 10.3FantasyPros 13.312.1Expected FP - 46
Matthew GoldenWR · GB vs HOUMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.2Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 11.311.9Expected FP - 47
Cam WardQB · TEN vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.2Sleeper 12.5FantasyPros 12.911.8Expected FP - 48
Ashton JeantyRB · LV vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.0Sleeper 11.4FantasyPros 12.211.8Expected FP - 49
Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.3Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 9.711.3Expected FP - 50
Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 11.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.3Sleeper 10.6FantasyPros 10.311.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
