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Week 172026 · Standard

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D/ST · Week 17 · Standard

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · All rankable defenses

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
32 shown · common FP scale
1.012.3
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    9.7Expected FP
  2. 2
    San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs PHISun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.2Expected FP
  3. 3
    Cleveland BrownsD/ST · CLE vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.9Expected FP
  4. 4
    Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.8Expected FP
  5. 5
    Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.4Expected FP
  6. 6
    Los Angeles RamsD/ST · LAR vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    7.2Expected FP
  7. 7
    Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.9Expected FP
  8. 8
    Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.5Expected FP
  9. 9
    Indianapolis ColtsD/ST · IND vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.4Expected FP
  10. 10
    Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  11. 11
    New York JetsD/ST · NYJ vs MINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
  12. 12
    Atlanta FalconsD/ST · ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  13. 13
    Green Bay PackersD/ST · GB vs HOUMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.4Expected FP
  14. 14
    Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs SEASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  15. 15
    New England PatriotsD/ST · NE vs DENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.1Expected FP
  16. 16
    Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs NESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.1Expected FP
  17. 17
    Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.1Expected FP
  18. 18
    Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.0Expected FP
  19. 19
    Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.9Expected FP
  20. 20
    New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.8Expected FP
  21. 21
    Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs GBMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.8Expected FP
  22. 22
    Las Vegas RaidersD/ST · LV vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.7Expected FP
  23. 23
    Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs LARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    4.7Expected FP
  24. 24
    Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.7Expected FP
  25. 25
    Baltimore RavensD/ST · BAL vs CINThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.6Expected FP
  26. 26
    Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.4Expected FP
  27. 27
    New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.3Expected FP
  28. 28
    Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.6Expected FP
  29. 29
    Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs JACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    3.5Expected FP
  30. 30
    Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs KCSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    3.3Expected FP
  31. 31
    Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs SFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    2.8Expected FP
  32. 32
    Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs BUFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    2.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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