FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 17 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.8Sleeper 29.1FantasyPros 22.925.2Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.4Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 20.524.0Expected FP - 3
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.9Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.623.4Expected FP - 4
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 21.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 23.5FantasyPros 19.821.0Expected FP - 5
Drake MayeQB · NE vs DENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.3Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 20.020.6Expected FP - 6
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.1Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 18.320.4Expected FP - 7
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs PHISun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.0Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.220.4Expected FP - 8
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.2Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 15.319.6Expected FP - 9
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs HOUMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 18.419.4Expected FP - 10
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.3Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 16.219.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
