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Week 172026 · Half-PPR

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Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 17 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
30 shown · common FP scale
0.029.1
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    25.1Expected FP
  2. 2
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    24.3Expected FP
  3. 3
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.5Expected FP
  4. 4
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    20.9Expected FP
  5. 5
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs DENSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    20.6Expected FP
  6. 6
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs PHISun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.3Expected FP
  7. 7
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs HOUMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.6Expected FP
  8. 8
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs GBMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.4Expected FP
  9. 9
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.1Expected FP
  10. 10
    Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.0Expected FP
  11. 11
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.6Expected FP
  12. 12
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.8Expected FP
  13. 13
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    17.4Expected FP
  14. 14
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    17.4Expected FP
  15. 15
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.6Expected FP
  16. 16
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs NESun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    16.6Expected FP
  17. 17
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.2Expected FP
  18. 18
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs JACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    16.0Expected FP
  19. 19
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    15.6Expected FP
  20. 20
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs SEASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.6Expected FP
  21. 21
    Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    12.8Expected FP
  22. 22
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs LARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    12.0Expected FP
  23. 23
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    11.9Expected FP
  24. 24
    Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs CINThu 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    11.2Expected FP
  25. 25
    Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs MINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    11.0Expected FP
  26. 26
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs KCSun 12:00 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    10.7Expected FP
  27. 27
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs SFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.9Expected FP
  28. 28
    Carson BeckQB · ARI vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.0Expected FP
  29. 29
    Daniel JonesQB · IND vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    8.8Expected FP
  30. 30
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    7.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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