FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 16 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 26.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.2Sleeper 23.0FantasyPros 21.426.5Expected FP - 2
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 22.6FantasyPros 21.623.2Expected FP - 3
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs DENFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.8Sleeper 25.0FantasyPros 21.722.9Expected FP - 4
Drake MayeQB · NE vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.2Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 21.922.6Expected FP - 5
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.1Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 19.221.4Expected FP - 6
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.5Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 19.621.1Expected FP - 7
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs CHIFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.0Sleeper 20.4FantasyPros 20.520.6Expected FP - 8
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs PHIThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.2Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 17.119.4Expected FP - 9
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs GBFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.0Sleeper 16.8FantasyPros 19.618.5Expected FP - 10
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.5Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 13.418.4Expected FP - 11
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 17.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.6Sleeper 18.0FantasyPros 19.517.9Expected FP - 12
Jared GoffQB · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 17.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.8Sleeper 19.1FantasyPros 18.917.9Expected FP - 13
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.8Sleeper 16.0FantasyPros 17.817.8Expected FP - 14
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.2Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 19.817.7Expected FP - 15
J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs DETMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 17.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.1Sleeper 16.2FantasyPros 19.317.4Expected FP - 16
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 17.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.8Sleeper 18.2FantasyPros 18.217.3Expected FP - 17
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.1Sleeper 14.7FantasyPros 13.516.7Expected FP - 18
Bo NixQB · DEN vs BUFFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.2Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 16.716.6Expected FP - 19
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs PITSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 16.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.1Sleeper 18.5FantasyPros 18.116.2Expected FP - 20
Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs NESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.2Sleeper 15.6FantasyPros 16.916.2Expected FP - 21
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs JACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.0Sleeper 16.3FantasyPros 17.116.1Expected FP - 22
Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 15.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.5Sleeper 13.4FantasyPros 14.915.9Expected FP - 23
Cam WardQB · TEN vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 14.515.7Expected FP - 24
Bhayshul TutenRB · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 15.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.7Sleeper 14.0FantasyPros 15.015.2Expected FP - 25
Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 15.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 14.1FantasyPros 16.915.2Expected FP - 26
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs DENFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.1Sleeper 14.1FantasyPros 13.615.1Expected FP - 27
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 14.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.4Sleeper 13.1FantasyPros 18.614.8Expected FP - 28
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 13.314.7Expected FP - 29
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 14.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.3Sleeper 13.2FantasyPros 13.214.6Expected FP - 30
D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI vs GBFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.6Sleeper 14.0FantasyPros 14.114.5Expected FP - 31
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LARFri 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.0Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 13.214.3Expected FP - 32
Derrick HenryRB · BAL vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.4Sleeper 13.9FantasyPros 15.013.9Expected FP - 33
Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 13.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.2Sleeper 15.8FantasyPros 14.613.8Expected FP - 34
Jonathan TaylorRB · IND vs CINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 13.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.2Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 12.313.8Expected FP - 35
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 13.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.4Sleeper 11.6FantasyPros 11.613.7Expected FP - 36
Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 13.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.7Sleeper 14.1FantasyPros 17.613.6Expected FP - 37
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 13.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.0Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 13.113.5Expected FP - 38
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs JACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.7Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 12.213.1Expected FP - 39
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs MINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 13.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.5Sleeper 17.1FantasyPros 11.313.1Expected FP - 40
Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs SEAFri 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.8Sleeper 12.3FantasyPros 15.113.0Expected FP - 41
Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 12.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.8Sleeper 0.0FantasyPros 16.712.9Expected FP - 42
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 12.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.3Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 11.412.3Expected FP - 43
Christian WatsonWR · GB vs CHIFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.8Sleeper 13.8FantasyPros 11.612.2Expected FP - 44
Brock BowersTE · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.7Sleeper 13.3FantasyPros 8.812.2Expected FP - 45
Chuba HubbardRB · CAR vs PITSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 12.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.0Sleeper 12.3FantasyPros 12.712.1Expected FP - 46
Parker WashingtonWR · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.5Sleeper 11.7FantasyPros 11.711.9Expected FP - 47
Chase BrownRB · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 11.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.0Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 10.911.8Expected FP - 48
Matthew GoldenWR · GB vs CHIFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.4Sleeper 11.3FantasyPros 10.811.8Expected FP - 49
Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL vs JACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.6Sleeper 13.6FantasyPros 11.311.6Expected FP - 50
Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.4Sleeper 11.2FantasyPros 10.311.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
