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Week 162026 · Standard

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D/ST · Week 16 · Standard

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · All rankable defenses

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
32 shown · common FP scale
1.98.2
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Baltimore RavensD/ST · BAL vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.6Expected FP
  2. 2
    Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    7.2Expected FP
  3. 3
    Los Angeles RamsD/ST · LAR vs SEAFri 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.9Expected FP
  4. 4
    Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs PHIThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.9Expected FP
  5. 5
    Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.8Expected FP
  6. 6
    Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.8Expected FP
  7. 7
    Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.4Expected FP
  8. 8
    Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  9. 9
    New England PatriotsD/ST · NE vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  10. 10
    Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  11. 11
    Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
  12. 12
    Atlanta FalconsD/ST · ATL vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  13. 13
    Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs MINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.7Expected FP
  14. 14
    Las Vegas RaidersD/ST · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.6Expected FP
  15. 15
    Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs LARFri 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.4Expected FP
  16. 16
    Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.3Expected FP
  17. 17
    Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs GBFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.3Expected FP
  18. 18
    Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs DENFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  19. 19
    Green Bay PackersD/ST · GB vs CHIFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  20. 20
    Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs PITSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  21. 21
    New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.1Expected FP
  22. 22
    San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.0Expected FP
  23. 23
    Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.9Expected FP
  24. 24
    Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.8Expected FP
  25. 25
    Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs HOUThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.7Expected FP
  26. 26
    New York JetsD/ST · NYJ vs NESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.4Expected FP
  27. 27
    Cleveland BrownsD/ST · CLE vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.0Expected FP
  28. 28
    Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.9Expected FP
  29. 29
    Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs BUFFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.9Expected FP
  30. 30
    New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs DETMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.7Expected FP
  31. 31
    Indianapolis ColtsD/ST · IND vs CINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    3.6Expected FP
  32. 32
    Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs JACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.1Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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