FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 16 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 26.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.2Sleeper 23.0FantasyPros 21.426.5Expected FP - 2
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 22.6FantasyPros 21.623.2Expected FP - 3
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs DENFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.8Sleeper 25.0FantasyPros 21.722.9Expected FP - 4
Drake MayeQB · NE vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.2Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 21.922.6Expected FP - 5
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.1Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 19.221.4Expected FP - 6
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.5Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 19.621.1Expected FP - 7
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs CHIFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.0Sleeper 20.4FantasyPros 20.520.6Expected FP - 8
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs PHIThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.2Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 17.119.4Expected FP - 9
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs GBFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.0Sleeper 16.8FantasyPros 19.618.5Expected FP - 10
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.5Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 13.418.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
