FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 15 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs CHISat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.1Sleeper 28.9FantasyPros 23.325.9Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 20.1FantasyPros 19.323.2Expected FP - 3
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 20.220.7Expected FP - 4
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.6Sleeper 19.7FantasyPros 19.420.5Expected FP - 5
Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.4Sleeper 16.2FantasyPros 22.019.9Expected FP - 6
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs DETSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.1Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 20.219.6Expected FP - 7
Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.9Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 20.219.6Expected FP - 8
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs LACThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 22.2FantasyPros 18.619.6Expected FP - 9
Bo NixQB · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 18.419.4Expected FP - 10
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs BUFSat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.0Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 19.319.1Expected FP - 11
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 21.4FantasyPros 16.819.1Expected FP - 12
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 19.5FantasyPros 17.618.8Expected FP - 13
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.4Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 13.818.7Expected FP - 14
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.9Sleeper 19.8FantasyPros 20.118.7Expected FP - 15
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs NEMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.5Sleeper 17.8FantasyPros 15.418.4Expected FP - 16
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs NEMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 18.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 19.8FantasyPros 17.018.2Expected FP - 17
Drake MayeQB · NE vs KCMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.3Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 19.717.9Expected FP - 18
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.1Sleeper 15.8FantasyPros 16.617.6Expected FP - 19
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 12.2FantasyPros 11.517.4Expected FP - 20
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.5Sleeper 15.4FantasyPros 19.417.3Expected FP - 21
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.1Sleeper 17.3FantasyPros 20.216.9Expected FP - 22
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 16.4FantasyPros 16.616.7Expected FP - 23
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs CHISat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.8Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 14.716.3Expected FP - 24
Cam WardQB · TEN vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.3Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 14.716.0Expected FP - 25
Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.8Sleeper 15.5FantasyPros 15.016.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
