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Week 152026 · Half-PPR

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Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 15 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
30 shown · common FP scale
0.028.9
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs CHISat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    26.0Expected FP
  2. 2
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.1Expected FP
  3. 3
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.7Expected FP
  4. 4
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.6Expected FP
  5. 5
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.1Expected FP
  6. 6
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs LACThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.9Expected FP
  7. 7
    Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.5Expected FP
  8. 8
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs DETSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.4Expected FP
  9. 9
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.3Expected FP
  10. 10
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs BUFSat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.0Expected FP
  11. 11
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.9Expected FP
  12. 12
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.9Expected FP
  13. 13
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs NEMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    18.3Expected FP
  14. 14
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs KCMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.8Expected FP
  15. 15
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.6Expected FP
  16. 16
    Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.3Expected FP
  17. 17
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.7Expected FP
  18. 18
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.0Expected FP
  19. 19
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.8Expected FP
  20. 20
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.7Expected FP
  21. 21
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.1Expected FP
  22. 22
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    13.8Expected FP
  23. 23
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    12.3Expected FP
  24. 24
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs SFThu 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    11.9Expected FP
  25. 25
    Daniel JonesQB · IND vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    10.9Expected FP
  26. 26
    Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    10.8Expected FP
  27. 27
    Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    9.1Expected FP
  28. 28
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs SEASat 5:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    8.8Expected FP
  29. 29
    Carson BeckQB · ARI vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    8.1Expected FP
  30. 30
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    6.1Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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