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Week 152026 · Half-PPR

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D/ST · Week 15 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · All rankable defenses

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
32 shown · common FP scale
0.812.4
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs PHISat 5:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.5Expected FP
  2. 2
    San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs LACThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.2Expected FP
  3. 3
    Green Bay PackersD/ST · GB vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    9.0Expected FP
  4. 4
    New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    8.2Expected FP
  5. 5
    Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.8Expected FP
  6. 6
    Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.6Expected FP
  7. 7
    Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.5Expected FP
  8. 8
    Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.5Expected FP
  9. 9
    Cleveland BrownsD/ST · CLE vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.4Expected FP
  10. 10
    Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
  11. 11
    New York JetsD/ST · NYJ vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
  12. 12
    Baltimore RavensD/ST · BAL vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  13. 13
    Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs SEASat 5:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.7Expected FP
  14. 14
    Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.4Expected FP
  15. 15
    Los Angeles RamsD/ST · LAR vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.4Expected FP
  16. 16
    Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs NEMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.4Expected FP
  17. 17
    New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.3Expected FP
  18. 18
    Indianapolis ColtsD/ST · IND vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  19. 19
    Atlanta FalconsD/ST · ATL vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  20. 20
    Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  21. 21
    Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  22. 22
    Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.0Expected FP
  23. 23
    Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs DETSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.8Expected FP
  24. 24
    Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs CHISat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.8Expected FP
  25. 25
    Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.4Expected FP
  26. 26
    Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.2Expected FP
  27. 27
    Las Vegas RaidersD/ST · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.1Expected FP
  28. 28
    New England PatriotsD/ST · NE vs KCMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.0Expected FP
  29. 29
    Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs GBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.7Expected FP
  30. 30
    Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs BUFSat 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.2Expected FP
  31. 31
    Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs SFThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    2.9Expected FP
  32. 32
    Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    2.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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