FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 13 · Half-PPR · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
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Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.1Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.123.8Expected FP - 2
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.0Sleeper 24.0FantasyPros 21.022.9Expected FP - 3
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.721.9Expected FP - 4
Drake MayeQB · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.721.5Expected FP - 5
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.0Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 20.721.3Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
