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Week 132026 · Half-PPR

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FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER

Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 13 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
27 shown · common FP scale
0.027.1
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.7Expected FP
  2. 2
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.9Expected FP
  3. 3
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.5Expected FP
  4. 4
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.1Expected FP
  5. 5
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.1Expected FP
  6. 6
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.0Expected FP
  7. 7
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.6Expected FP
  8. 8
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.5Expected FP
  9. 9
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.0Expected FP
  10. 10
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.9Expected FP
  11. 11
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.8Expected FP
  12. 12
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    17.1Expected FP
  13. 13
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs GBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.5Expected FP
  14. 14
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.3Expected FP
  15. 15
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs HOUSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.2Expected FP
  16. 16
    Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs SEAMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.0Expected FP
  17. 17
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.9Expected FP
  18. 18
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs KCThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.3Expected FP
  19. 19
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs SFSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    13.9Expected FP
  20. 20
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.6Expected FP
  21. 21
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    12.5Expected FP
  22. 22
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs MINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    12.4Expected FP
  23. 23
    Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    11.6Expected FP
  24. 24
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    11.4Expected FP
  25. 25
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs CARSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    10.6Expected FP
  26. 26
    Carson BeckQB · ARI vs PHISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.7Expected FP
  27. 27
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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