FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 12 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.0Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 19.925.0Expected FP - 2
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.2Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.623.1Expected FP - 3
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.2Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 20.222.8Expected FP - 4
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 21.4FantasyPros 20.021.1Expected FP - 5
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.1Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.320.8Expected FP - 6
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs KCThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 24.8FantasyPros 21.420.7Expected FP - 7
Drake MayeQB · NE vs LACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.5Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 18.520.6Expected FP - 8
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 17.8FantasyPros 18.820.0Expected FP - 9
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs BUFThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 18.519.2Expected FP - 10
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs CARMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 16.3FantasyPros 15.819.1Expected FP - 11
Jared GoffQB · DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 18.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.1Sleeper 20.7FantasyPros 19.918.8Expected FP - 12
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs LARWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.2Sleeper 16.0FantasyPros 19.918.6Expected FP - 13
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs PHIThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.6Sleeper 17.8FantasyPros 17.618.2Expected FP - 14
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs BUFThu 8:20 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 18.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 17.418.1Expected FP - 15
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.8Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 19.017.8Expected FP - 16
Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.2Sleeper 16.4FantasyPros 18.817.6Expected FP - 17
Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.2Sleeper 17.8FantasyPros 18.917.4Expected FP - 18
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs TBMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.9Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 19.516.9Expected FP - 19
J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 16.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 15.8FantasyPros 18.016.9Expected FP - 20
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.5Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 17.116.8Expected FP - 21
Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs GBWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.1Sleeper 13.0FantasyPros 17.615.9Expected FP - 22
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs KCThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.8Sleeper 13.7FantasyPros 15.215.2Expected FP - 23
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs MINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.9Sleeper 16.2FantasyPros 13.715.1Expected FP - 24
Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR vs GBWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 14.0FantasyPros 13.915.0Expected FP - 25
Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL vs PHIThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.9Sleeper 14.0FantasyPros 14.215.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
