FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 12 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.0Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 19.925.0Expected FP - 2
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.2Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.623.1Expected FP - 3
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.2Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 20.222.8Expected FP - 4
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 21.4FantasyPros 20.021.1Expected FP - 5
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.1Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.320.8Expected FP - 6
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs KCThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 24.8FantasyPros 21.420.7Expected FP - 7
Drake MayeQB · NE vs LACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.5Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 18.520.6Expected FP - 8
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 17.8FantasyPros 18.820.0Expected FP - 9
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs BUFThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 18.519.2Expected FP - 10
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs CARMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.9Sleeper 16.3FantasyPros 15.819.1Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
