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Week 122026 · Half-PPR

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Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 12 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
30 shown · common FP scale
0.025.0
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    25.0Expected FP
  2. 2
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.1Expected FP
  3. 3
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    22.8Expected FP
  4. 4
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.2Expected FP
  5. 5
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs KCThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.7Expected FP
  6. 6
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs LACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.6Expected FP
  7. 7
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.0Expected FP
  8. 8
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.8Expected FP
  9. 9
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs LARWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.6Expected FP
  10. 10
    Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs PHIThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.2Expected FP
  11. 11
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs BUFThu 8:20 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    18.1Expected FP
  12. 12
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.8Expected FP
  13. 13
    Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.4Expected FP
  14. 14
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.4Expected FP
  15. 15
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs TBMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.0Expected FP
  16. 16
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    16.9Expected FP
  17. 17
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.9Expected FP
  18. 18
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs GBWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.0Expected FP
  19. 19
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs DENFri 3:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.7Expected FP
  20. 20
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs PITFri 3:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    14.6Expected FP
  21. 21
    Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.7Expected FP
  22. 22
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs DALThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.6Expected FP
  23. 23
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs CARMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.1Expected FP
  24. 24
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs NESun 8:20 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    12.9Expected FP
  25. 25
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs JACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    11.2Expected FP
  26. 26
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs MINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    10.3Expected FP
  27. 27
    Daniel JonesQB · IND vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    10.2Expected FP
  28. 28
    Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    9.8Expected FP
  29. 29
    Carson BeckQB · ARI vs WASSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.4Expected FP
  30. 30
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs LVSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    6.8Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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