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Week 122026 · Half-PPR

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D/ST · Week 12 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · All rankable defenses

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
32 shown · common FP scale
0.99.5
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.6Expected FP
  2. 2
    Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.5Expected FP
  3. 3
    New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.5Expected FP
  4. 4
    New England PatriotsD/ST · NE vs LACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.4Expected FP
  5. 5
    New York JetsD/ST · NYJ vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.9Expected FP
  6. 6
    Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs PHIThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.6Expected FP
  7. 7
    San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.5Expected FP
  8. 8
    Cleveland BrownsD/ST · CLE vs LVSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  9. 9
    Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs CARMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.3Expected FP
  10. 10
    Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs PITFri 3:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.2Expected FP
  11. 11
    Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.2Expected FP
  12. 12
    Las Vegas RaidersD/ST · LV vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.1Expected FP
  13. 13
    Los Angeles RamsD/ST · LAR vs GBWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
  14. 14
    Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  15. 15
    Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs DENFri 3:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.8Expected FP
  16. 16
    Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.6Expected FP
  17. 17
    Atlanta FalconsD/ST · ATL vs MINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.5Expected FP
  18. 18
    Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs TBMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.5Expected FP
  19. 19
    Indianapolis ColtsD/ST · IND vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.3Expected FP
  20. 20
    Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    5.2Expected FP
  21. 21
    Green Bay PackersD/ST · GB vs LARWed 8:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.9Expected FP
  22. 22
    Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs KCThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.7Expected FP
  23. 23
    Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.6Expected FP
  24. 24
    Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.6Expected FP
  25. 25
    Baltimore RavensD/ST · BAL vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.5Expected FP
  26. 26
    Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs DALThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.2Expected FP
  27. 27
    Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs WASSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.2Expected FP
  28. 28
    New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.0Expected FP
  29. 29
    Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs NESun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.0Expected FP
  30. 30
    Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs BUFThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    4.0Expected FP
  31. 31
    Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    3.5Expected FP
  32. 32
    Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs JACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    2.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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