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Week 162026 · Half-PPR

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Fortified Rankings.

QB · Week 16 · Half-PPR

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

Max · PPR expected score above 5 FP. Displayed scores use your selected scoring.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros
30 shown · common FP scale
0.026.5
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    26.5Expected FP
  2. 2
    Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.2Expected FP
  3. 3
    Josh AllenQB · BUF vs DENFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    22.9Expected FP
  4. 4
    Drake MayeQB · NE vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    22.6Expected FP
  5. 5
    Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.1Expected FP
  6. 6
    Jordan LoveQB · GB vs CHIFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.6Expected FP
  7. 7
    C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs PHIThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.4Expected FP
  8. 8
    Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs GBFri 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.5Expected FP
  9. 9
    Kirk CousinsQB · MIN vs WASSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    17.9Expected FP
  10. 10
    Jared GoffQB · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.9Expected FP
  11. 11
    Brock PurdyQB · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    17.7Expected FP
  12. 12
    J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG vs DETMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    17.4Expected FP
  13. 13
    Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    17.3Expected FP
  14. 14
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs BUFFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.6Expected FP
  15. 15
    Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs PITSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    16.2Expected FP
  16. 16
    Geno SmithQB · NYJ vs NESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.2Expected FP
  17. 17
    Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs JACSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.1Expected FP
  18. 18
    Cam WardQB · TEN vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
    15.7Expected FP
  19. 19
    Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    15.2Expected FP
  20. 20
    Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs TBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    14.8Expected FP
  21. 21
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    13.8Expected FP
  22. 22
    Baker MayfieldQB · TB vs ATLSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    13.6Expected FP
  23. 23
    Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs MINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    13.1Expected FP
  24. 24
    Matthew StaffordQB · LAR vs SEAFri 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    13.0Expected FP
  25. 25
    Fernando MendozaQB · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    12.9Expected FP
  26. 26
    Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI vs HOUThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    10.8Expected FP
  27. 27
    Daniel JonesQB · IND vs CINSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    10.5Expected FP
  28. 28
    Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    9.7Expected FP
  29. 29
    Carson BeckQB · ARI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    7.5Expected FP
  30. 30
    Shedeur SandersQB · CLE vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
    6.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

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