FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
D/ST · Week 13 · PPR
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
D/ST. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
Max · All rankable defenses
- 1
Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.4Sleeper 6.5FantasyPros 7.09.2Expected FP - 2
Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.9Sleeper 7.1FantasyPros 7.08.9Expected FP - 3
Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs CARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.8Sleeper 6.3FantasyPros 7.87.3Expected FP - 4
Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.0Sleeper 6.2FantasyPros 6.67.1Expected FP - 5
San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 6.2FantasyPros 7.36.8Expected FP - 6
Green Bay PackersD/ST · GB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.9Sleeper 6.2FantasyPros 7.46.6Expected FP - 7
Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.4Sleeper 8.1FantasyPros 5.96.3Expected FP - 8
Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.2Sleeper 6.1FantasyPros 6.36.3Expected FP - 9
Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.4Sleeper 5.2FantasyPros 6.46.0Expected FP - 10
Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs PHISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.9Sleeper 5.1FantasyPros 5.15.7Expected FP - 11
Los Angeles RamsD/ST · LAR vs KCThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.9Sleeper 4.8FantasyPros 7.15.5Expected FP - 12
Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.6Sleeper 4.5FantasyPros 6.25.4Expected FP - 13
Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.4Sleeper 4.2FantasyPros 6.35.4Expected FP - 14
Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.5Sleeper 5.6FantasyPros 5.15.4Expected FP - 15
Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs HOUSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.8Sleeper 6.1FantasyPros 5.05.4Expected FP - 16
Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs MINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.2Sleeper 4.1FantasyPros 5.75.2Expected FP - 17
Cleveland BrownsD/ST · CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.2Sleeper 4.1FantasyPros 5.85.0Expected FP - 18
Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.2Sleeper 4.1FantasyPros 4.95.0Expected FP - 19
Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs SEAMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.5Sleeper 3.3FantasyPros 5.54.8Expected FP - 20
Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.5Sleeper 3.9FantasyPros 4.74.7Expected FP - 21
Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.0Sleeper 4.0FantasyPros 5.74.6Expected FP - 22
Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.8Sleeper 4.3FantasyPros 4.54.5Expected FP - 23
Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs DENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.3Sleeper 4.0FantasyPros 4.54.3Expected FP - 24
New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs GBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 3.5FantasyPros 4.84.2Expected FP - 25
Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.9Sleeper 2.5FantasyPros 5.33.9Expected FP - 26
Atlanta FalconsD/ST · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.3Sleeper 4.3FantasyPros 4.13.8Expected FP - 27
New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs SFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.6Sleeper 2.2FantasyPros 4.13.4Expected FP - 28
New England PatriotsD/ST · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 3.8Sleeper 1.9FantasyPros 4.33.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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