
Should I start Alvin Kamara or Woody Marks? (PPR Week 13 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Alvin Kamara
Week 13 ยท PPR
Alvin Kamara has the higher current FF forecast: 8.7 FP versus 8.4 FP. The 0.3-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Alvin Kamara: 10.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Alvin Kamara: 7.5% matchup lift against GB.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Woody Marks
RB ยท HOUStats & schedule โบAlvin Kamara
- Recent scoring average: 10.6 FP.
- The GB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 7.5%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 5.7 carries per game.
Woody Marks
- Recent scoring average: 8.8 FP.
- Last 3 recorded games: 12.0 carries per game.
Alvin Kamara
- FF projection
- 8.7 FP +0.4vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 8.3 FP
- Sleeper
- 5.5 FP
- FantasyPros
- 9.2 FP
Alvin Kamara faces GB in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 10.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.
Woody Marks
- FF projection
- 8.4 FP +1.6vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 6.8 FP
- Sleeper
- 8.0 FP
- FantasyPros
- 9.2 FP
Woody Marks faces PIT in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 8.8 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
RB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 26.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.3Sleeper 25.9FantasyPros 23.126.0Expected FP - 2
Christian McCaffreyRB ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.0Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 20.021.4Expected FP - 3
Bijan RobinsonRB ยท ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.3Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 18.919.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 13 decisions
Alvin Kamara8.7projected FP
Aaron Jones Sr.10.2projected FP
Alvin Kamara8.7projected FP
RJ Harvey9.1projected FP
Alvin Kamara8.7projected FP
Kenny Gainwell8.2projected FP
Alvin Kamara8.7projected FP
Dylan Sampson8.2projected FP
Jahmyr Gibbs26.0projected FP
Christian McCaffrey21.4projected FP
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Kenneth Walker III19.8projected FP
Kenneth Walker III19.8projected FP
Bijan Robinson19.2projected FP
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Bucky Irving19.0projected FP
Bucky Irving19.0projected FP
Tony Pollard17.8projected FP
Tony Pollard17.8projected FP
Josh Jacobs16.1projected FP