FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
D/ST · Week 11 · PPR
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
D/ST. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
Max · All rankable defenses
- 1
Pittsburgh SteelersD/ST · PIT vs PHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.8Sleeper 6.5FantasyPros 7.28.7Expected FP - 2
Kansas City ChiefsD/ST · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.5Sleeper 6.7FantasyPros 7.08.1Expected FP - 3
Buffalo BillsD/ST · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.0Sleeper 6.4FantasyPros 6.57.9Expected FP - 4
Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 6.5FantasyPros 7.47.6Expected FP - 5
New York JetsD/ST · NYJ vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.5Sleeper 5.7FantasyPros 6.67.2Expected FP - 6
San Francisco 49ersD/ST · SF vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 6.2FantasyPros 7.37.0Expected FP - 7
Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.4Sleeper 6.3FantasyPros 7.96.9Expected FP - 8
Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.2Sleeper 5.1FantasyPros 8.06.8Expected FP - 9
Chicago BearsD/ST · CHI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 5.3FantasyPros 7.16.2Expected FP - 10
Detroit LionsD/ST · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.4Sleeper 4.3FantasyPros 6.05.8Expected FP - 11
Philadelphia EaglesD/ST · PHI vs PITSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.8Sleeper 5.4FantasyPros 5.95.7Expected FP - 12
Carolina PanthersD/ST · CAR vs BALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.3Sleeper 5.4FantasyPros 4.55.6Expected FP - 13
Baltimore RavensD/ST · BAL vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.2Sleeper 4.7FantasyPros 5.65.5Expected FP - 14
Los Angeles ChargersD/ST · LAC vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.7Sleeper 4.7FantasyPros 6.55.4Expected FP - 15
Dallas CowboysD/ST · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.3Sleeper 5.5FantasyPros 5.55.4Expected FP - 16
Cincinnati BengalsD/ST · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.7Sleeper 4.1FantasyPros 5.54.8Expected FP - 17
Washington CommandersD/ST · WAS vs CINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 3.8FantasyPros 5.34.5Expected FP - 18
New York GiantsD/ST · NYG vs JACSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.8Sleeper 4.0FantasyPros 4.94.2Expected FP - 19
Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.4Sleeper 4.5FantasyPros 4.44.2Expected FP - 20
Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs SFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 4.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.6Sleeper 4.2FantasyPros 4.54.1Expected FP - 21
Las Vegas RaidersD/ST · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 2.9Sleeper 4.0FantasyPros 4.23.8Expected FP - 22
Indianapolis ColtsD/ST · IND vs HOUThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 2.7Sleeper 4.3FantasyPros 4.13.6Expected FP - 23
Tennessee TitansD/ST · TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 2.7Sleeper 2.9FantasyPros 5.03.5Expected FP - 24
New Orleans SaintsD/ST · NO vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 3.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 3.5Sleeper 1.1FantasyPros 4.53.1Expected FP - 25
Arizona CardinalsD/ST · ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 2.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 2.9Sleeper 0.8FantasyPros 5.22.8Expected FP - 26
Miami DolphinsD/ST · MIA vs BUFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 2.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 3.1Sleeper 0.6FantasyPros 4.42.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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