Should I start Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson this week? Week 9 Standard (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Jordan Addison

+0.5 projected edge · Standard

Start Jordan Addison over T.J. Hockenson for Week 9 Standard: 7.4 projected points versus 6.9.

Jordan Addison: 5.5 FP recent scoring average.
Jordan Addison: 7.5% matchup lift against BUF.

Forecast updated Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Jordan Addison

WR · MINStats & schedule

7.4FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

vs BUF

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

T.J. Hockenson

TE · MINStats & schedule

6.9FF projected

↑ +0.9 vs ESPN

vs BUF

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Jordan Addison

FF projection: 7.4 FP -0.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.5 FP
Sleeper: 6.2 FP
FantasyPros: 6.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Jordan Addison faces BUF in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 5.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

T.J. Hockenson

FF projection: 6.9 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.0 FP
Sleeper: 6.1 FP
FantasyPros: 5.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

T.J. Hockenson faces BUF in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 10.7 fantasy points.

Jordan Addison projects for 7.4 points in standard scoring, 0.5 more than T.J. Hockenson. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson?

Jordan Addison holds a 0.5 FP projected edge over T.J. Hockenson. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Jordan Addison higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison has a 7.4 FP forecast in Standard against BUF. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.5 FP, putting this forecast 2.0 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson has a 6.9 FP forecast in Standard against BUF. His recorded recent scoring average is 10.7 FP, putting this forecast 3.7 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Jordan Addison	T.J. Hockenson	Projected edge
ESPN	7.5 FP	6.0 FP	Jordan Addison +1.5
Sleeper	6.2 FP	6.1 FP	Effectively level
FantasyPros	6.9 FP	5.6 FP	Jordan Addison +1.3
Boosted Trees	7.2 FP	5.9 FP	Jordan Addison +1.3

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Jordan Addison: Mon 8:15 PM ET. T.J. Hockenson: Mon 8:15 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

15.422.5

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.8Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 21.1
22.5Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.0Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 18.2
18.9Expected FP
3
Jonathan TaylorRB · IND vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.9Sleeper 15.8FantasyPros 15.4
18.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 9