Should I start Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: T.J. Hockenson

The displayed FF scores are tied. T.J. Hockenson gets the tiebreaker: FF is +0.8 FP versus ESPN, compared with +0.0 for Jordan Addison. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

T.J. Hockenson: 12.7 FP recent scoring average.
Jordan Addison: 6.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

T.J. Hockenson

TE · MINStats & schedule

9.2FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

vs BUF

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jordan Addison

WR · MINStats & schedule

9.2FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

vs BUF

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

T.J. Hockenson

FF projection: 9.2 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.3 FP
Sleeper: 8.4 FP
FantasyPros: 7.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

T.J. Hockenson faces BUF in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 12.7 fantasy points.

Jordan Addison

FF projection: 9.2 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 9.2 FP
Sleeper: 7.6 FP
FantasyPros: 8.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jordan Addison faces BUF in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 6.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Updated Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson?

Jordan Addison holds a 0.0 FP projected edge over T.J. Hockenson. The headline recommendation above also accounts for availability; the raw FF order alone is not the full call.

The available estimates disagree: ESPN, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Jordan Addison, while Sleeper leans toward T.J. Hockenson. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison has a 9.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR against BUF. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.7 FP, putting this forecast 2.5 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson has a 9.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR against BUF. His recorded recent scoring average is 12.7 FP, putting this forecast 3.5 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Jordan Addison	T.J. Hockenson	Projected edge
ESPN	9.2 FP	8.3 FP	Jordan Addison +0.8
Sleeper	7.6 FP	8.4 FP	T.J. Hockenson +0.9
FantasyPros	8.5 FP	7.8 FP	Jordan Addison +0.8
Boosted Trees	9.4 FP	8.3 FP	Jordan Addison +1.1

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Jordan Addison: Mon 8:15 PM ET. T.J. Hockenson: Mon 8:15 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.925.0

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.2Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 23.5
25.0Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.9Sleeper 20.7FantasyPros 19.7
20.8Expected FP
3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.5Sleeper 20.1FantasyPros 19.7
20.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 9