Should I start Dylan Sampson or Seth McGowan this week? Week 10 Standard (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Dylan Sampson

+0.9 projected edge · Standard

Start Dylan Sampson over Seth McGowan for Week 10 Standard: 5.3 projected points versus 4.4.

Dylan Sampson: 6.5 FP recent scoring average.
Seth McGowan: 6.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 12:43 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Dylan Sampson

RB · CLEStats & schedule

5.3FF projected

↓ -0.2 vs ESPN

vs HOU

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Seth McGowan

RB · INDStats & schedule

4.4FF projected

↓ -0.3 vs ESPN

vs MIA

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dylan Sampson

FF projection: 5.3 FP -0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.5 FP
Sleeper: 5.2 FP
FantasyPros: 5.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Dylan Sampson faces HOU in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 6.5 fantasy points.

Seth McGowan

FF projection: 4.4 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.8 FP
Sleeper: 4.5 FP
FantasyPros: 4.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 2.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Seth McGowan faces MIA in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 6.0 fantasy points.

Dylan Sampson projects for 5.3 points in standard scoring, 0.9 more than Seth McGowan. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 12:43 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dylan Sampson and Seth McGowan?

Dylan Sampson holds a 0.9 FP projected edge over Seth McGowan. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Dylan Sampson higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dylan Sampson

Dylan Sampson has a 5.3 FP forecast in Standard against HOU. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.5 FP, putting this forecast 1.2 points below that average.

Seth McGowan

Seth McGowan has a 4.4 FP forecast in Standard against MIA. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.0 FP, putting this forecast 1.6 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dylan Sampson	Seth McGowan	Projected edge
ESPN	5.5 FP	4.8 FP	Dylan Sampson +0.8
Sleeper	5.2 FP	4.5 FP	Dylan Sampson +0.7
FantasyPros	5.6 FP	4.5 FP	Dylan Sampson +1.1
Boosted Trees	3.2 FP	2.3 FP	Dylan Sampson +0.9

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dylan Sampson: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Seth McGowan: Sun 1:00 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

RB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.022.6

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 19.5FantasyPros 19.9
20.7Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.6Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 18.3
20.4Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.1Sleeper 18.0FantasyPros 17.0
18.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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