Should I start Jonnu Smith or Tanner Koziol this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Jonnu Smith

Week 10 · PPR

Jonnu Smith has the higher current FF forecast: 1.4 FP versus 1.3 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Jonnu Smith: 0.9 FP recent scoring average.
Jonnu Smith: 10% matchup reduction against MIN.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 6:38 AM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Jonnu Smith

TE · GBStats & schedule

1.4FF projected

vs MIN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tanner Koziol

TE · JACStats & schedule

1.3FF projected

at TEN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

14.116.7

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SEASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.4Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 14.8
16.7Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.3Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 16.1
16.2Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs LARSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.1Sleeper 15.0FantasyPros 15.6
15.7Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.