Should I start Dallas Goedert or Dalton Kincaid this week? Week 9 PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Dallas Goedert

Week 9 · PPR

Dallas Goedert has the higher current FF forecast: 9.7 FP versus 9.5 FP. The 0.2-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Dallas Goedert: 9.7 FP recent scoring average.
Dalton Kincaid: 14.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 5, 2026, 1:00 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

9.7FF projected

↑ +1.1 vs ESPN

vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dalton Kincaid

TE · BUFStats & schedule

9.5FF projected

↑ +0.9 vs ESPN

at MIN

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Dalton Kincaid?

Dallas Goedert and Dalton Kincaid are separated by 0.2 projected FP. That margin is too small to treat the FF order as a decisive advantage. The FF pick above follows the same expected-points and displayed-tie policy as Fortified Rankings; the saved source comparison below provides supporting context.

Sleeper also projects Dallas Goedert higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 9.7 FP forecast in PPR against NYG. His recorded recent scoring average is 9.7 FP.

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid has a 9.5 FP forecast in PPR at MIN. His recorded recent scoring average is 14.7 FP, putting this forecast 5.2 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Dalton Kincaid	Projected edge
ESPN	8.7 FP	8.6 FP	Effectively level
Sleeper	9.9 FP	9.8 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.1
FantasyPros	9.8 FP	9.8 FP	Effectively level

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Dalton Kincaid: Mon 8:15 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

14.318.9

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.2Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 17.2
18.6Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.2Sleeper 15.5FantasyPros 15.1
17.1Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.3Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 15.4
15.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

More decisions involving your players

Compare another option for the same lineup decision. These are Start/Sit decisions for players you already own. Availability and scoring can change the call.

Flex · Week 9