
Should I start Dallas Goedert or Omar Cooper Jr. this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Dallas Goedert
Week 9 ยท Half-PPR
Dallas Goedert has the higher current FF forecast: 7.5 FP versus 7.4 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR




Omar Cooper Jr.
WR ยท NYJStats & schedule โบDallas Goedert
- His prior three-game scoring average was 9.1 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.8 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 7.2 FP.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.7 targets per game.
Omar Cooper Jr.
- His prior three-game scoring average was 19.3 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.5 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 13.1 FP.
- The KC defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- Last 2 recorded games: 4.0 targets per game.
Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert faces NYG in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 7.2 fantasy points.
Omar Cooper Jr.
Omar Cooper Jr. faces KC in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 13.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT
What separates Dallas Goedert and Omar Cooper Jr.?
Dallas Goedert and Omar Cooper Jr. are separated by 0.2 projected FP. That margin is too small to treat the FF order as a decisive advantage. The FF pick above follows the same expected-points and displayed-tie policy as Fortified Rankings; the saved source comparison below provides supporting context.
The available estimates disagree: Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Dallas Goedert, while ESPN leans toward Omar Cooper Jr.. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.
Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert has a 7.5 FP forecast in Half-PPR against NYG. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.2 FP, putting this forecast 0.3 points above that average.
Omar Cooper Jr.
Omar Cooper Jr. has a 7.4 FP forecast in Half-PPR at KC. His recorded recent scoring average is 13.1 FP, putting this forecast 5.7 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 8.75%; it is already included in the projection.
Compare the saved forecasts side by side
| Source | Dallas Goedert | Omar Cooper Jr. | Projected edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 6.7 FP | 7.5 FP | Omar Cooper Jr. +0.8 |
| Sleeper | 7.8 FP | 7.3 FP | Dallas Goedert +0.5 |
| FantasyPros | 7.7 FP | 6.7 FP | Dallas Goedert +0.9 |
| Boosted Trees | 6.7 FP | 4.6 FP | Dallas Goedert +2.1 |
Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Omar Cooper Jr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท ยท WEEK 9 ยท Half-PPR
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.2Sleeper 23.1FantasyPros 23.725.1Expected FP - 2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.0Sleeper 21.2FantasyPros 20.021.1Expected FP - 3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.5Sleeper 19.9FantasyPros 19.620.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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Dallas Goedert7.5projected FP
Kyle Pitts Sr.8.3projected FP
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Dalton Kincaid7.6projected FP
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Mason Taylor7.2projected FP
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Greg Dulcich8.0projected FP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba21.1projected FP
Puka Nacua20.3projected FP
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CeeDee Lamb17.5projected FP
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Ja'Marr Chase17.2projected FP
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Tee Higgins17.0projected FP
Tee Higgins17.0projected FP
Amon-Ra St. Brown16.4projected FP
Amon-Ra St. Brown16.4projected FP
Malik Nabers15.5projected FP
Omarion Hampton
Omar Cooper Jr.