Should I drop Wil Lutz for Matt Gay?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: add Matt Gay for Wil Lutz

This week’s projections are 8.1 FP for Wil Lutz and 9.1 FP for Matt Gay. Matt Gay leads by 7.7 FP across the evaluated weeks and holds up in the Weeks 15–18 outlook. These are player forecast totals. Use your league’s playoff weeks and roster needs to make the final call.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 4:53 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Wil Lutz

K · DEN · vs CAR

Stats & schedule ›

8.1FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

7.0%rostered on ESPN+0.30 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Matt Gay

K · LV · vs SF

Stats & schedule ›

9.1FF projected FP

Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

57.8%rostered on ESPN0.00 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Wil Lutz is 7.0% rostered; Matt Gay is 57.8% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Wil Lutz

Wil Lutz projects for 8.1 Standard points against CAR this week. His recent scoring average is 10.0 FP. He is rostered in 7.0% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.30 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 8.1 FP -0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.8 FP
Sleeper: 7.4 FP
FantasyPros: 7.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Matt Gay

Matt Gay projects for 9.1 Standard points against SF this week. His recent scoring average is 10.0 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 10%. He is rostered in 57.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.00 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 9.1 FP -0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 9.3 FP
Sleeper: 8.2 FP
FantasyPros: 7.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 6, 4:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. For a bye replacement, the hold decision starts after the bye. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Wil Lutz	Matt Gay
Next 3 weeks	16.6 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · Bye Week 10 · cover needed	26.4 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	74.7 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · Bye Week 10 · cover needed	82.4 FPHigher projection9/9 scheduled games projected · Bye Week 13 · cover needed
Weeks 15–18	33.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	37.5 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Wil Lutz	Matt Gay
Week 9	8.1 FPvs CAR	9.1 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 10	BYE	8.6 FPvs SEAHigher projection
Week 11	8.5 FPvs LV	8.8 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 12	8.5 FPvs PIT	9.0 FPvs CLEHigher projection
Week 13	8.4 FPvs MIAHigher projection	BYE
Week 14	8.1 FPvs NYJ	9.5 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 15	8.3 FPvs LV	9.2 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 16	8.4 FPvs BUF	10.0 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 17	8.0 FPvs NE	9.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 18	8.2 FPvs LAC	8.9 FPvs KCHigher projection