Should I drop Geno Smith for Michael Penix Jr.?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: keep Geno Smith

Geno Smith retains a 5.2 FP remaining-schedule advantage. Michael Penix Jr. leads this week by 1.6 FP, but a short-term fill-in does not justify losing the stronger projected hold. Check for a lower-cost roster spot if you need coverage. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Nov 3, 1:19 AM ET

THE WEEK 9 FILE · REST OF SEASONBraelon and the Jets.Hall’s return. Cooper’s target swing. The roles and routes behind your next Jets decision.Read the analysis ↗

PLAYER TO DROP

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs KC

Stats & schedule ›

13.0FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

32.8%rostered on ESPN0.00 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs CIN

Stats & schedule ›

14.6FF projected FP

Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

18.6%rostered on ESPN-0.02 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Geno Smith is 32.8% rostered; Michael Penix Jr. is 18.6% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Geno Smith

Geno Smith projects for 13.0 Standard points against KC this week. His recent scoring average is 17.8 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 32.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.00 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 13.0 FP
ESPN: 14.0 FP
Sleeper: 12.8 FP
FantasyPros: 13.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 11.4 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix Jr. projects for 14.6 Standard points against CIN this week. His recent scoring average is 13.9 FP. He is rostered in 18.6% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.02 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.6 FP
ESPN: 15.8 FP
Sleeper: 14.8 FP
FantasyPros: 15.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 14.7 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Geno Smith	Michael Penix Jr.
Next 3 weeks	43.3 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	27.6 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	136.7 FPHigher projection9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	131.5 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	61.4 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	61.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Geno Smith	Michael Penix Jr.
Week 9	13.0 FPvs KC	14.6 FPvs CINHigher projection
Week 10	16.1 FPvs BUFHigher projection	13.0 FPvs KC
Week 11	14.2 FPvs LACHigher projection	BYE
Week 12	18.1 FPvs MIAHigher projection	10.5 FPvs MIN
Week 13	BYE	19.0 FPvs DETHigher projection
Week 14	13.9 FPvs DENHigher projection	13.3 FPvs CLE
Week 15	19.0 FPvs ARIHigher projection	17.5 FPvs WAS
Week 16	14.7 FPvs NEHigher projection	12.7 FPvs TB
Week 17	11.9 FPvs MIN	16.1 FPvs NOHigher projection
Week 18	15.7 FPvs BUFHigher projection	14.7 FPvs CAR