Should I drop Geno Smith for Joe Burrow?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: add Joe Burrow for Geno Smith

Joe Burrow leads by 10.4 FP this week, 96.2 FP across the remaining schedule and does not meaningfully trail in the Weeks 15–18 forecast total. The projected outlook supports the swap if your roster can spare Geno Smith. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Nov 3, 2:19 AM ET

THE WEEK 9 FILE · REST OF SEASONBraelon and the Jets.Hall’s return. Cooper’s target swing. The roles and routes behind your next Jets decision.Read the analysis ↗

PLAYER TO DROP

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs KC

Stats & schedule ›

13.0FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

32.8%rostered on ESPN0.00 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · vs ATL

Stats & schedule ›

23.4FF projected FP

Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

98.8%rostered on ESPN-0.01 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Geno Smith is 32.8% rostered; Joe Burrow is 98.8% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Geno Smith

Geno Smith projects for 13.0 Standard points against KC this week. His recent scoring average is 17.8 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 32.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.00 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 13.0 FP
ESPN: 14.0 FP
Sleeper: 12.8 FP
FantasyPros: 13.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 11.4 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow projects for 23.4 Standard points against ATL this week. His recent scoring average is 34.2 FP. He is rostered in 98.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.01 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 23.4 FP
ESPN: 21.3 FP
Sleeper: 19.9 FP
FantasyPros: 20.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 22.1 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Geno Smith	Joe Burrow
Next 3 weeks	43.3 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	71.5 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	136.7 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	232.9 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	61.4 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	93.5 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Geno Smith	Joe Burrow
Week 9	13.0 FPvs KC	23.4 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 10	16.1 FPvs BUF	21.4 FPvs PITHigher projection
Week 11	14.2 FPvs LAC	26.7 FPvs WASHigher projection
Week 12	18.1 FPvs MIA	24.7 FPvs NOHigher projection
Week 13	BYE	21.9 FPvs CLEHigher projection
Week 14	13.9 FPvs DEN	21.4 FPvs KCHigher projection
Week 15	19.0 FPvs ARI	23.5 FPvs CARHigher projection
Week 16	14.7 FPvs NE	24.2 FPvs INDHigher projection
Week 17	11.9 FPvs MIN	23.5 FPvs BALHigher projection
Week 18	15.7 FPvs BUF	22.3 FPvs CLEHigher projection