Should I start Detroit Lions or Indianapolis Colts in Week 9 (2026, PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Detroit Lions

+3.7 projected edge · PPR

Start Detroit Lions over Indianapolis Colts for Week 9 PPR: 7.1 projected points versus 3.4.

Detroit Lions: 6.25% matchup lift against MIA.
Indianapolis Colts: 2.5% matchup reduction against DAL.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:19 PM ET · PPR

Need a D/ST off waivers?

FF PICK

Detroit Lions

DST · DETStats & schedule

7.1FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

at MIA

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Indianapolis Colts

DST · INDStats & schedule

3.4FF projected

↑ +0.7 vs ESPN

vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Detroit Lions

FF projection: 7.1 FP +0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.3 FP
Sleeper: 6.4 FP
FantasyPros: 6.3 FP

Detroit Lions faces MIA in Week 9. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 6.25%.

Indianapolis Colts

FF projection: 3.4 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 2.7 FP
Sleeper: 3.1 FP
FantasyPros: 4.6 FP

Indianapolis Colts faces DAL in Week 9. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.

Detroit Lions projects for 7.1 points in PPR scoring, 3.7 more than Indianapolis Colts. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:19 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

-1.519.0

FF MEAN

1
Houston TexansD/ST · HOU vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
FantasyPros 8.0
10.1Expected FP
2
Seattle SeahawksD/ST · SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 8.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.6Sleeper 9.8FantasyPros 7.3
8.9Expected FP
3
Jacksonville JaguarsD/ST · JAC vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETLocked
P10 -1.5P90 19.0
Median 7.5
Sleeper 8.8FantasyPros 7.1
7.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.