Should I start David Moore or Tim Patrick in Week 17 (2026, PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: David Moore

Week 17 · PPR

David Moore has the higher current FF forecast: 0.4 FP versus 0.1 FP. The 0.3-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

David Moore: -0.7 FP recent scoring average.
David Moore: 7.5% matchup reduction against SEA.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:11 AM ET · PPR

FF PICK

David Moore

WR · CARStats & schedule

0.4FF projected

vs SEA

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tim Patrick

WR · NYJStats & schedule

0.1FF projected

vs MIN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.824.2

FF MEAN

1
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.2Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 21.2
22.2Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.1Sleeper 24.0FantasyPros 19.4
22.0Expected FP
3
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.0Sleeper 20.4FantasyPros 20.2
20.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.