Should I start Drake Maye or Joe Burrow? (Half-PPR Week 17 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Joe Burrow

+3.8 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Joe Burrow over Drake Maye for Week 17 Half-PPR: 24.3 projected points versus 20.5.

Joe Burrow · Injury report dated Nov 8, 2026, 2:05 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 12, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Drake Maye · Injury report dated Nov 8, 2026, 10:16 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 12, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Joe Burrow: 32.6 FP recent scoring average.
Drake Maye: 22.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 6:02 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Joe Burrow

QB · CINStats & schedule

24.3FF projected

↑ +0.9 vs ESPN

vs BAL

Thu 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Drake Maye

QB · NEStats & schedule

20.5FF projected

↓ -0.8 vs ESPN

vs DEN

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Why this pick?

Joe Burrow

FF projection: 24.3 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 23.4 FP
Sleeper: 21.1 FP
FantasyPros: 20.5 FP

Joe Burrow faces BAL in Week 17. Recent scoring average: 32.6 fantasy points.

Drake Maye

FF projection: 20.5 FP -0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 21.3 FP
Sleeper: 19.2 FP
FantasyPros: 20.0 FP

Drake Maye faces DEN in Week 17. Recent scoring average: 22.7 fantasy points.

Joe Burrow projects for 24.3 points in half-PPR scoring, 3.8 more than Drake Maye. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 6:02 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.928.7

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.8Sleeper 28.7FantasyPros 22.9
25.0Expected FP
2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.4Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 20.5
24.3Expected FP
3
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 22.6
23.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.