Should I start Dallas Goedert or Mark Andrews? (Standard Week 16 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Dallas Goedert

+1.3 projected edge · Standard

Start Dallas Goedert over Mark Andrews for Week 16 Standard: 5.0 projected points versus 3.7.

Dallas Goedert: 4.3 FP recent scoring average.
Dallas Goedert: 6.25% matchup reduction against HOU.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

5.0FF projected

↑ +0.7 vs ESPN

vs HOU

Thu 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Mark Andrews

TE · BALStats & schedule

3.7FF projected

↑ +0.4 vs ESPN

vs CLE

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dallas Goedert

FF projection: 5.0 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.3 FP
Sleeper: 6.7 FP
FantasyPros: 4.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Dallas Goedert faces HOU in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 4.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%.

Mark Andrews

FF projection: 3.7 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.3 FP
Sleeper: 4.1 FP
FantasyPros: 3.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.6 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Mark Andrews faces CLE in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 1.9 fantasy points.

Dallas Goedert projects for 5.0 points in standard scoring, 1.3 more than Mark Andrews. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews?

Dallas Goedert holds a 1.3 FP projected edge over Mark Andrews. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Dallas Goedert higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 5.0 FP forecast in Standard against HOU. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.3 FP, putting this forecast 0.6 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 6.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews has a 3.7 FP forecast in Standard against CLE. His recorded recent scoring average is 1.9 FP, putting this forecast 1.8 points above that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Mark Andrews	Projected edge
ESPN	4.3 FP	3.3 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.9
Sleeper	6.7 FP	4.1 FP	Dallas Goedert +2.6
FantasyPros	4.8 FP	3.5 FP	Dallas Goedert +1.3
Boosted Trees	6.0 FP	5.6 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.3

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Thu 8:15 PM ET. Mark Andrews: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

7.613.3

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.7Sleeper 13.3FantasyPros 8.8
12.2Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 8.8Sleeper 10.5FantasyPros 7.6
9.9Expected FP
3
George KittleTE · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.1Sleeper 9.7FantasyPros 9.7
9.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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TE · Week 16