Should I start Mark Andrews or Xavier Worthy? (Standard Week 16 2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Xavier Worthy: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Xavier Worthy · Injury report dated Nov 11, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Mark Andrews: 1.9 FP recent scoring average.
Xavier Worthy: 2.4 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 9:47 AM ET · Standard

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Mark Andrews

TE · BALStats & schedule

3.7FF projected

↑ +0.4 vs ESPN

vs CLE

Sun 1:00 PM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Xavier Worthy

WR · KCStats & schedule

4.5FF projected

↓ -0.3 vs ESPN

vs SF

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Why this pick?

Mark Andrews

FF projection: 3.7 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.3 FP
Sleeper: 4.1 FP
FantasyPros: 3.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.6 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Mark Andrews faces CLE in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 1.9 fantasy points.

Xavier Worthy

FF projection: 4.5 FP -0.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.8 FP
Sleeper: 6.1 FP
FantasyPros: 4.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Xavier Worthy faces SF in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 2.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%. Xavier Worthy is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 9:47 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Mark Andrews and Xavier Worthy?

Availability takes priority over the points comparison. The headline warning above still applies; the supporting forecasts below do not clear an injured player to start.

The available estimates disagree: Boosted Trees leans toward Mark Andrews, while ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Xavier Worthy. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews has a 3.7 FP forecast in Standard against CLE. His recorded recent scoring average is 1.9 FP, putting this forecast 1.8 points above that average.

Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy has a 4.5 FP forecast in Standard against SF. His recorded recent scoring average is 2.4 FP, putting this forecast 2.1 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 6.25%; it is already included in the projection. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Mark Andrews	Xavier Worthy	Projected edge
ESPN	3.3 FP	4.8 FP	Xavier Worthy +1.5
Sleeper	4.1 FP	6.1 FP	Xavier Worthy +1.9
FantasyPros	3.5 FP	4.8 FP	Xavier Worthy +1.3
Boosted Trees	5.6 FP	5.5 FP	Mark Andrews +0.1

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Mark Andrews: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Xavier Worthy: Sun 4:25 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

12.021.9

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NYGMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.1Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 19.2
21.4Expected FP
2
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.5Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 13.4
18.4Expected FP
3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.8Sleeper 16.0FantasyPros 17.8
17.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 16