Should I start Luke Schoonmaker or Sam Roush in Week 15 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Sam Roush

+0.3 projected edge · Standard

Start Sam Roush over Luke Schoonmaker for Week 15 Standard: 1.0 projected points versus 0.7.

Luke Schoonmaker: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Luke Schoonmaker · Injury report dated Nov 10, 2026, 10:44 AM ET

Sam Roush: 0.8 FP recent scoring average.
Luke Schoonmaker: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:26 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Sam Roush

TE · CHIStats & schedule

1.0FF projected

↑ +0.5 vs ESPN

at BUF

Sat 8:20 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Luke Schoonmaker

TE · DALStats & schedule

0.7FF projected

at LAR

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Why this pick?

Sam Roush

FF projection: 1.0 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.6 FP
Sleeper: 1.4 FP
FantasyPros: 0.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Sam Roush faces BUF in Week 15. Recent scoring average: 0.8 fantasy points.

Luke Schoonmaker

FF projection: 0.7 FP
Sleeper: 0.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Luke Schoonmaker faces LAR in Week 15. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 3.75%. Luke Schoonmaker is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Sam Roush projects for 1.0 points, 0.3 more than Luke Schoonmaker.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:26 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

6.612.2

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.3Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 9.4
12.2Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs NYJSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.6Sleeper 10.3FantasyPros 8.1
10.0Expected FP
3
George KittleTE · SF vs LACThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.1Sleeper 10.6FantasyPros 6.6
9.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.