FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 14 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs GBSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 25.1FantasyPros 21.823.0Expected FP - 2
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.7Sleeper 22.0FantasyPros 18.121.4Expected FP - 3
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 20.2FantasyPros 20.620.5Expected FP - 4
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.1Sleeper 20.8FantasyPros 20.820.4Expected FP - 5
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 19.320.3Expected FP - 6
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.4Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 21.120.0Expected FP - 7
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs BUFSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.2Sleeper 18.6FantasyPros 18.719.7Expected FP - 8
Bryce YoungQB · CAR vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.6Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 18.719.6Expected FP - 9
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs HOUSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.7Sleeper 20.4FantasyPros 17.219.6Expected FP - 10
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs CINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 16.519.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
