
Should I start Jack Endries or John Bates? (Half-PPR Week 14 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: John Bates
The displayed FF scores are tied. John Bates gets the tiebreaker: FF is +0.3 FP versus ESPN, compared with -0.5 for Jack Endries. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.
- John Bates: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.
- John Bates: 6.25% matchup reduction against HOU.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Jack Endries
TE ยท CINStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
John Bates
- FF projection
- 1.1 FP +0.2vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.9 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.5 FP
- FantasyPros
- 1.4 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 1.6 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
John Bates faces HOU in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%.
Jack Endries
- FF projection
- 1.1 FP -0.5vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 1.6 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.1 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 0.3 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Jack Endries faces KC in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 2.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Brock BowersTE ยท LV vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.2Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 10.313.7Expected FP - 2
Colston LovelandTE ยท CHI vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.3Sleeper 10.1FantasyPros 11.111.7Expected FP - 3
George KittleTE ยท SF vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.8Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 10.111.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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