
Should I start Darius Cooper or Efton Chism III? (Half-PPR Week 14 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Efton Chism III
The displayed FF scores are tied. Efton Chism III gets the tiebreaker: FF is +1.8 FP versus ESPN, compared with +1.7 for Darius Cooper. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.
- Efton Chism III: 6.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Efton Chism III: 7.5% matchup reduction against MIN.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Darius Cooper
WR ยท PHIStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Efton Chism III
- FF projection
- 3.1 FP +1.8vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 1.3 FP
- Sleeper
- 2.4 FP
- FantasyPros
- 2.6 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 5.7 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Efton Chism III faces MIN in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 6.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
Darius Cooper
- FF projection
- 3.1 FP +1.7vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 1.4 FP
- Sleeper
- 2.5 FP
- FantasyPros
- 4.3 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 3.0 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Darius Cooper faces IND in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 2.9 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
WR. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR ยท DET vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability ยท Range unavailableMean 18.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 17.818.7Expected FP - 2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.7Sleeper 21.2FantasyPros 15.617.8Expected FP - 3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR ยท CIN vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.7Sleeper 14.8FantasyPros 15.115.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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