Should I start Bryce Lance or DeVonta Smith in Week 14 (2026, Half-PPR)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

DeVonta Smith: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

DeVonta Smith · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Bryce Lance: 1.1 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 6:14 AM ET · Half-PPR

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Bryce Lance

WR · NOStats & schedule

2.0FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

at CAR

Sun 1:00 PM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

DeVonta Smith

WR · PHIStats & schedule

11.3FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

vs IND

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Bryce Lance

FF projection: 2.0 FP +0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 1.2 FP
Sleeper: 0.3 FP
FantasyPros: 3.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Bryce Lance faces CAR in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 1.1 fantasy points.

DeVonta Smith

FF projection: 11.3 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 11.3 FP
Sleeper: 11.2 FP
FantasyPros: 10.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 10.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

DeVonta Smith faces IND in Week 14. DeVonta Smith is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 6:14 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

14.821.2

FF MEAN

1
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.4Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 17.8
18.7Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs NYGSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.7Sleeper 21.2FantasyPros 15.6
17.8Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.7Sleeper 14.8FantasyPros 15.1
15.7Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.