FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
WR · Week 13 · Standard
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
WR. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.5Sleeper 18.5FantasyPros 14.716.6Expected FP - 2
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.8Sleeper 12.1FantasyPros 11.913.8Expected FP - 3
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 12.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.8Sleeper 12.3FantasyPros 12.812.9Expected FP - 4
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.3Sleeper 10.6FantasyPros 9.712.5Expected FP - 5
Christian WatsonWR · GB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.7Sleeper 13.4FantasyPros 11.812.5Expected FP - 6
Matthew GoldenWR · GB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.3Sleeper 10.8FantasyPros 11.011.9Expected FP - 7
Drake LondonWR · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.5Sleeper 12.3FantasyPros 11.611.4Expected FP - 8
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs SEAMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.0Sleeper 11.7FantasyPros 10.311.4Expected FP - 9
Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 10.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.6Sleeper 9.7FantasyPros 9.210.5Expected FP - 10
Parker WashingtonWR · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.7Sleeper 11.7FantasyPros 9.510.5Expected FP - 11
Chris OlaveWR · NO vs GBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.0Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 10.510.3Expected FP - 12
Mike EvansWR · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 10.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.8Sleeper 13.8FantasyPros 7.910.2Expected FP - 13
Justin JeffersonWR · MIN vs CARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.4Sleeper 11.2FantasyPros 8.510.2Expected FP - 14
DJ MooreWR · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.4Sleeper 10.2FantasyPros 8.810.1Expected FP - 15
Jameson WilliamsWR · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.8Sleeper 8.7FantasyPros 10.29.6Expected FP - 16
Malik NabersWR · NYG vs SFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.7Sleeper 9.9FantasyPros 9.29.4Expected FP - 17
Stefon DiggsWR · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.8Sleeper 8.7FantasyPros 9.39.3Expected FP - 18
Nico CollinsWR · HOU vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.1Sleeper 12.5FantasyPros 9.19.3Expected FP - 19
DeVonta SmithWR · PHI vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 8.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.6Sleeper 9.7FantasyPros 6.88.7Expected FP - 20
Rashee RiceWR · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.3Sleeper 9.5FantasyPros 8.38.3Expected FP - 21
A.J. BrownWR · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 8.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.0Sleeper 8.4FantasyPros 7.28.1Expected FP - 22
Rome OdunzeWR · CHI vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.2Sleeper 7.9FantasyPros 8.07.8Expected FP - 23
Carnell TateWR · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 7.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.4Sleeper 9.5FantasyPros 7.27.7Expected FP - 24
Emeka EgbukaWR · TB vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.3Sleeper 7.0FantasyPros 7.07.6Expected FP - 25
Denzel BostonWR · CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 7.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.6Sleeper 7.9FantasyPros 6.77.6Expected FP - 26
Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 7.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.8Sleeper 9.3FantasyPros 6.87.4Expected FP - 27
KC Concepcion Jr.WR · CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.0Sleeper 6.9FantasyPros 6.77.3Expected FP - 28
DK MetcalfWR · PIT vs HOUSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.0Sleeper 6.6FantasyPros 7.97.2Expected FP - 29
Khalil ShakirWR · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 7.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.4Sleeper 6.6FantasyPros 6.27.0Expected FP - 30
Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR vs MINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.7Sleeper 9.0FantasyPros 5.26.9Expected FP - 31
Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 6.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.8Sleeper 8.7FantasyPros 6.66.7Expected FP - 32
George PickensWR · DAL vs SEAMon 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 6.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.8Sleeper 7.8FantasyPros 6.86.7Expected FP - 33
Jakobi MeyersWR · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 6.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.2Sleeper 7.3FantasyPros 6.06.6Expected FP - 34
DeMario DouglasWR · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.5Sleeper 4.7FantasyPros 5.76.5Expected FP - 35
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 6.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.9Sleeper 7.1FantasyPros 5.66.5Expected FP - 36
Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.7Sleeper 5.2FantasyPros 7.66.3Expected FP - 37
Caleb DouglasWR · MIA vs DENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.3Sleeper 4.9FantasyPros 5.26.1Expected FP - 38
Jordan AddisonWR · MIN vs CARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 6.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.9Sleeper 5.4FantasyPros 5.66.1Expected FP - 39
Pat BryantWR · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.2Sleeper 6.9FantasyPros 4.25.8Expected FP - 40
Jalen CokerWR · CAR vs MINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.9Sleeper 9.2FantasyPros 4.65.8Expected FP - 41
Germie BernardWR · PIT vs HOUSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.4Sleeper 5.3FantasyPros 6.85.8Expected FP - 42
Courtland SuttonWR · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.5Sleeper 6.7FantasyPros 5.45.8Expected FP - 43
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.0Sleeper 7.2FantasyPros 4.85.6Expected FP - 44
Makai LemonWR · PHI vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 2.9Sleeper 3.8FantasyPros 5.55.3Expected FP - 45
Jordyn TysonWR · NO vs GBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.8Sleeper 6.2FantasyPros 7.05.3Expected FP - 46
Tank DellWR · HOU vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 5.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 5.2Sleeper 1.8FantasyPros 5.65.3Expected FP - 47
Romeo DoubsWR · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableSleeper 6.2FantasyPros 5.05.3Expected FP - 48
Malik WashingtonWR · MIA vs DENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.9Sleeper 5.7FantasyPros 4.85.2Expected FP - 49
Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 5.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 3.6Sleeper 4.9FantasyPros 4.65.0Expected FP - 50
Xavier WorthyWR · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 5.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 4.4Sleeper 6.0FantasyPros 5.65.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
