FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
Superflex · Week 13 · Standard · QB / RB / WR / TE
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
Superflex. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.0Sleeper 27.1FantasyPros 21.023.7Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.721.9Expected FP - 3
Drake MayeQB · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.821.5Expected FP - 4
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.0Sleeper 20.8FantasyPros 19.221.3Expected FP - 5
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.8Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 20.721.1Expected FP - 6
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.0Sleeper 20.5FantasyPros 20.721.0Expected FP - 7
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 18.820.7Expected FP - 8
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.4Sleeper 19.8FantasyPros 19.220.5Expected FP - 9
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.3Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 20.518.6Expected FP - 10
Bo NixQB · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 18.118.0Expected FP - 11
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.7Sleeper 17.1FantasyPros 17.617.9Expected FP - 12
Jared GoffQB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.7Sleeper 18.2FantasyPros 19.917.8Expected FP - 13
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 17.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.0Sleeper 16.8FantasyPros 18.617.1Expected FP - 14
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.5Sleeper 18.5FantasyPros 14.716.6Expected FP - 15
Tyler ShoughQB · NO vs GBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.6Sleeper 14.5FantasyPros 17.316.5Expected FP - 16
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI vs JACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.8Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 18.116.5Expected FP - 17
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.7Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 14.116.4Expected FP - 18
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.6FantasyPros 16.916.4Expected FP - 19
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.6Sleeper 15.1FantasyPros 11.516.1Expected FP - 20
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 14.616.0Expected FP - 21
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.7Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 12.815.5Expected FP - 22
Aaron RodgersQB · PIT vs HOUSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.2Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 16.715.2Expected FP - 23
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs SEAMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.8Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 15.615.0Expected FP - 24
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.6Sleeper 14.8FantasyPros 13.115.0Expected FP - 25
Cam WardQB · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 15.8FantasyPros 15.614.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
